Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that go straight up to the sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails on the side of the sunken boat, optimism is the luxuriant grass blowing in the wind at the head of Parrot Island, optimism is the little bits of falling red that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: The U.S. dollar index maintains a narrow range, and the market is waiting for the speech of Federal Reserve officials." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday in Asian trading, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated around 99.66. The U.S. dollar came under pressure last Friday and recorded a weekly decline against the euro and the Japanese yen. Investors struggled to weigh the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve against the concerns about the U.S. economy. Due to the ongoing shutdown of the federal government, the October employment report originally scheduled to be released last Friday was not released as scheduled, resulting in a lack of key economic data for the market to refer to, and U.S. bond yields fell slightly. Investors will need to continue to pay attention to speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week.
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index is hovering around 99.66. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.15% last week, ending two consecutive weeks of gains. Analysts pointed out that although the U.S. dollar has recently regained some safe-haven appeal, the Japanese yen remains the market's preferred defensive currency. Although the U.S. dollar may rebound in the short term due to the relatively strong U.S. economy, current market sentiment remains weak.
The U.S. Senate was originally scheduled to enter the Veterans Day recess week from the 8th, but did not adjourn on the 8th. Members of the two parties stayed in Washington to continue negotiations on ending the government "shutdown". The Democratic Party revealed that if the two parties reach an agreement, senators will be notified 24 hours before the vote to read the text of the bill. Members need to keep their schedules flexible so that they can return to vote at any time. Senate Republican leader John Thune said on the 8th that he was working hard to reach an agreement with Democratic senators and hoped to restore the government's operations through a "consolidated appropriation package" containing three full-year appropriation bills. Thune said that the draft is "almost fy.xmxmxm.cnplete" and hopes to vote as soon as possible but only if "there are enough votes." He also revealed that the two sides have launched "active cross-party dialogue" in the past 24 hours and is optimistic about the progress of the negotiations. The Senate adjourned until 13:30 local time on Sunday, which corresponds to 02:30 Beijing time on Monday morning.
According to reports from the AXIOS website, several U.S. Senate Democratic members said on Sunday that they are ready to advance a fy.xmxmxm.cnprehensive bill to break the government shutdown deadlock that has lasted for more than a month. The move is seen as the most groundbreaking development to date in negotiations between the two parties. Sources pointed out that at least 10 Democratic senators are expected to support a procedural motion to promote solutions including a spending package and a short-term appropriation measure that will allow the federal government to maintain operations until the end of January next year. It is reported that the agreement also includes an extension of the Democratic Party’s proposal in December.A proposal to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits for one year is on the ballot and could include provisions to aid federal employees who lose their jobs due to the government shutdown. In a rare weekend meeting in Washington, senators are expected to hold key votes on procedural motions on the government funding package on Sunday.
On November 7, local time, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the motion to advance the "Specific Federal Employees Appropriation Bill" (S.3012) by a vote of 53 to 43, failing to reach the 60 vote threshold required for passage. The bill aims to provide funding to some federal employees who still need to perform their duties during the forced shutdown to cushion the impact of the government shutdown. Although some lawmakers called for the restoration of funds for key departments as soon as possible, the final voting results showed that the differences between the two parties remained and the government "shutdown" will not be lifted for the time being.
The government shutdown directly led to the absence of official employment data, and traders were forced to turn to private sector reports. These data show that the U.S. economy slashed jobs in the government and retail sectors in October, and cost control and artificial intelligence applications pushed the number of layoffs to a peak. Franklin economist Mohit Kumar warned that the December meeting is as uncertain as a coin toss, everything depends on labor market signals, and the current data desert makes the market overreact to any disturbance. He emphasized that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks last month had raised the threshold for an interest rate cut in December, and the road to easing in the short term was full of thorns.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant said that the "tariff revenue subsidy of at least $2,000 for each American" mentioned by Trump may be achieved through tax cuts in the landmark economic policy bill passed earlier this year. Bessant said he has not yet spoken to Trump about the idea, but added: "This $2,000 payment could fy.xmxmxm.cne in many forms. It could fy.xmxmxm.cne from tax cuts that are moving forward on the president's agenda, such as the tip tax exemption, the overtime tax exemption, the Social Security tax exemption, or the car tax exemption." The interest on the loan is deductible. ”
The Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that we expect UK GDP data to shrink by 0.1% month-on-month. Although retail sales increased 0.5% month-on-month, we saw momentum weakening in other areas of the services sector as survey data was weaker, including a decline in the Services PMI to 50.8. Furthermore, we expect a contraction in the production sector after a strong performance in August. In particular, we expect results to be weighed down by Jaguar Land Rover's production shutdown, which has resulted in a significant decline in monthly vehicle production and impacted the wider supply chain. Our estimates suggest third-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, in line with the Bank of England's estimate.
Société Générale's interest rate strategists believe that German bond yields may rise moderately in 2026, but some prerequisites need to be met for the 10-year German bond yield to exceed 3%. Specifically, the strategists said: "To break through 3%, the European Central Bank will need to raise interest rates further and continue to accumulate term premiums." They pointed out that the accumulation of term premiums will be the main factor driving the steepening of the two-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves.
Nomura Securities previously predicted that the Bank of England would cut interest rates this week, but the expectation did not fy.xmxmxm.cne true. Nomura Securities pointed out in a report released before the meeting that if the Bank of England implements an interest rate cut in November, it will only cut interest rates once again in February next year. However, after the Bank of England meeting yesterday, Nomura Securities has moved back its expectations for the final timing of an interest rate cut. It is expected that the Bank of England will end the current interest rate cut cycle in April next year, and the next interest rate cut is expected to be in December. Nomura's forecast for terminal interest rates remains unchanged at 3.50%.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The U.S. dollar index maintains a narrow range of fluctuations, and the market is waiting for the speech of Federal Reserve officials". It is carefully fy.xmxmxm.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Spring, summer, autumn and winter, every season is a beautiful scenery, and they all stay in my heart forever. Slip away~~~