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U.S. consumer confidence falls to three-year low, is the U.S. government shutdown expected to end?

Post time: 2025-11-10 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: US consumer confidence fell to a three-year low, is the US government shutdown expected to end?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 10, in early Asian trading on Monday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.64. Last Friday, due to the unclear outlook of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. dollar index first rose and then fell. It once fell to an intraday low of 99.38, and finally closed down 0.13% at 99.53, ending two consecutive weekly gains; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closed at 4.104%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.568%. Due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar, spot gold rebounded. It once rose to an intraday high of $4,027.33, and then fell back, but still stood above the $4,000 mark. It finally closed up 0.61% at $4,001.39 per ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.68% at $48.34 per ounce. Crude oil rebounded slightly. WTI crude oil once returned to above the US$60 mark during the European trading session, but then erased part of the gains and failed to stand firmly above this mark. It finally closed up 0.49% at US$59.69/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.37% at US$63.45/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.64. Investors are primarily focused on the progress (or lack thereof) of the U.S. federal government shutdown, which has lasted 38 days, making it the longest in history. Technically, if the U.S. Dollar Index closes below the 99.50 level, it will head towards the 98.85–99.00 support level.

U.S. consumer confidence falls to three-year low, is the U.S. government shutdown expected to end?(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1566. The euro found support against the U.S. dollar on expectations that European policy rates will remain stable, while the U.K. and the U.S. are expected to cut interest rates further in 2026. While Fed Chairman Powell's previous fy.xmxmxm.cnments about the risks of easing policy had helped the dollar strengthen for five consecutive days, weak labor data released last Thursday immediately reversed that momentum. Technically, EUR/USD is trying to stabilize above the resistance at 1.1585–1.1600. If this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level at 1.1655–1.1670.

U.S. consumer confidence falls to three-year low, is the U.S. government shutdown expected to end?(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3161. A strong return of safe-haven funds has acted as a strong headwind for the risk-sensitive pound, while pushing the dollar to a five-month high against six major currencies. Technically, if GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3160 ​​level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3250–1.3265.

U.S. consumer confidence falls to three-year low, is the U.S. government shutdown expected to end?(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In Asian trading on Monday, gold hovered around 4020.06. The metal remains firm above $4,000 as traders grapple with Fed uncertainty, labor market weakness, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 38th day and counting.

U.S. consumer confidence falls to three-year low, is the U.S. government shutdown expected to end?(图4)

Technical aspect: Entering the new week, the gold market is still supported. Expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, U.S. Treasury yields have fy.xmxmxm.cne under pressure, and safe-haven demand shows no sign of fading. However, belief is limited as official labor and inflation data remain delayed. Traders will be watching for any signs of progress in shutdown talks and new fy.xmxmxm.cnments from the Federal Reserve. Gold is likely to continue to find a foothold above $4,000 until a clearer catalyst emerges, but a decisive breakout would likely require confirmation of economic weakness or a change in policy from the Federal Reserve.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Monday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 59.79. Oil prices rebounded on Friday and ended slightly higher. Market attention focused on a meeting at the White House between U.S. President Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, raising expectations among investors that this could find a way for Hungary to continue using Russian crude oil, thereby alleviating supply concerns caused by related sanctions. Separately, fy.xmxmxm.cnmodities trader Gunvor has withdrawn its proposal to acquire Russia's Lukoil overseas assets. Previously, the U.S. Treasury Department made it clear that it opposed the transaction, which also added to the marketuncertainty.

U.S. consumer confidence falls to three-year low, is the U.S. government shutdown expected to end?(图5)

Technical aspect: From the daily chart level of crude oil, the oil price touched the K line near 56 and closed three positive lines in a row, narrowing the previous downward decline. Oil prices cross the moving average system up and down, and the mid-term objective trend enters a volatile pattern. The MACD indicator opens upward below the zero axis, indicating that short momentum has weakened. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will pick up in the medium term, and the overall trend will mainly maintain a range-bound oscillation rhythm. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continued to decline, with oil prices hitting a low near 58.80. The moving average system effectively suppresses the rebound momentum of oil prices, and the short-term objective trend direction remains downward. The MACD indicator fast and slow line is running low below the zero axis, and short kinetic energy has the advantage. It is expected that the trend of crude oil during the day will remain mainly volatile and downward.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on November 10, 2025

① To be determined, domestic refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window

②17:30 Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence Index

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